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Global potash fertilizer market in the first quarter
In the first quarter of 2013, the global potash fertilizer market remained relatively stable, but the domestic Chinese market continued to show signs of weakness. Demand did not improve significantly, while supply kept rising, exacerbating the downward trend from the previous year. The situation was further complicated by a combination of delayed planting seasons and weak downstream confidence.
Early in the year, several major potash suppliers, including Canpotex, BPC, ICL, and APC, signed large contracts ahead of schedule. For instance, Canpotex agreed to supply Sinochem Fertilizer with one million tons of potash at a CIF price of $400 per ton for the first half of 2013. These contracts helped stabilize the spring planting season and supported price levels. However, adverse weather conditions—such as low temperatures in northern China and persistent droughts in the southwest—delayed agricultural activities by about 20 days, which created a temporary buffer in the market.
Despite these efforts, prices remained under pressure. The new contract prices were roughly in line with previous port sales, but downstream markets lacked confidence, leading to a wait-and-see attitude. After the Lunar New Year, as more shipments arrived, potash prices experienced several fluctuations before eventually softening. For example, border trade Russian Red Potash dropped from 2,600 yuan in early January to 2,400 yuan by the end of March, while 62% white potassium fell from 2,700 to 2,450 yuan.
The imbalance between supply and demand continued to suppress price recovery. In 2012, China’s total supply of potash reached 16.62 million tons, while demand stood at 12.52 million tons, leaving around 4 million tons in inventory. Even in early 2013, despite fewer sea arrivals, border trade imports remained strong. Customs data showed that in January and February, over 230,000 tons of potash entered via rail from Russia each month. By March, the combined port and border trade inflow reached 900,000 tons—the highest since 2008. Meanwhile, downstream demand remained sluggish, with small and medium-sized fertilizer plants only replenishing in small quantities.
On the international front, stability in the global market had limited impact on the domestic scene. India finalized its 2013 potash procurement list, with a contract price of $427 per ton, higher than China’s $400. Major importers like Brazil also saw increased activity, with potash imports rising by 21.4% in January–February 2013 compared to the same period in 2012. These developments helped stabilize Asian potash prices during the first half of the year.
North American producers, such as those in Canada and the U.S., ramped up production to compensate for earlier cutbacks. March production of potassium chloride reached 1.286 million tons, a 37% increase from the previous year. Exports surged by 183% compared to the same period in 2012, showing strong supplier confidence.
Domestically, the market remained uncertain. With supply continuing to grow and demand still weak, the outlook was mixed. At an FMB meeting in April, international suppliers hinted at potential price increases in the second half of the year. While this may seem premature, it signaled a desire to reverse the declining trend. As temperatures rose and crop demand picked up, the market would soon test whether potash prices could stabilize or continue their downward trajectory.