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**I. Macro News Briefing**
1. **Federal Reserve: Banks Remain Cautious**
The latest Federal Reserve report, released on Monday, highlighted that banks are still hesitant to ease their lending standards. This reluctance could be a factor in the recent recovery of the U.S. housing market, as tighter credit conditions may limit demand and prevent a rapid rebound.
2. **Australia May Lower Economic Growth Outlook**
According to reports from local Australian media cited by the Wall Street Journal on the 6th, the Australian Treasury has revised down its growth forecasts for both the current fiscal year (ending June 30) and the next fiscal year (2013-2014). The GDP growth projection was reduced by 0.25% for both periods, now standing at an estimated 2.75%.
3. **China’s State Council Unveils Economic Reform Priorities**
The Chinese government has outlined nine key areas for economic reform this year, including administrative restructuring, financial and tax reforms, investment policies, pricing mechanisms, social welfare, urban-rural development, agriculture, and technological innovation. The focus is on accelerating progress in critical sectors.
**Banks’ Lending Activity and Risk Concerns**
In April, China’s four major banks extended less than 250 billion yuan in new loans, prompting regulatory concerns over potential hidden risks. By the end of March, outstanding commercial bank loans had reached 524.3 billion yuan, up 20.7% year-on-year. This marks six consecutive quarters of growth, with a 33.9 billion yuan increase since the start of the year.
**Residential Land Sales Decline in 300 Cities**
According to data from the Index Information Center, residential land sales in 300 cities declined in April despite an increase in land supply. A total of 882 land parcels were launched, covering 36.89 million square meters, up 32% from the previous month. However, transactions fell by 18% in terms of number and 21% in area, indicating weaker buyer interest.
**II. U.S. Stock Market Performance**
On Monday, the U.S. stock market closed mixed, with the S&P 500 hitting another record high. The index rose to 1,617.50, up 0.19%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged lower by 0.03% to 14,968.89. Gold prices climbed to $1,468 per ounce, and crude oil settled at $96.16 per barrel. The LME market was closed due to a UK banking holiday, with copper closing at RMB 7,265 per ton.
**III. Billet Price Trends**
On May 7, billet prices in Tangshan remained stable. Changli reported a price of 3,190 yuan/ton, while Tangshan Xinglong and Guoyi factories priced at 3,170 yuan/ton (inclusive of taxes). Traders were offering bare billets around 3,040 yuan/ton.
**IV. Iron Ore Price Trends**
Domestic iron ore prices weakened slightly, with a balance between supply and demand. Import ore prices remained stable, but steel mills showed cautious buying behavior, waiting for clearer signals. In Tangshan, 66% sour dry powder was priced at 1,090 yuan/ton. Indian ore imports stood at around $118 per ton, with Tianjin Port’s 63.5% Indian ore at 950 yuan/ton and Qingdao Port’s 61.5% PB ore at 910 yuan/ton.
**V. Coke Price Trends**
Coke prices in eastern China fell slightly, with most coking plants reducing shipments. Inventory levels in Shanxi dropped, while Hebei saw limited price declines. Primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was quoted at 1,380 yuan/ton, and secondary coke in Hebei was priced at 1,390 yuan/ton.
**VI. Hot Rolled Coil Closing Prices**
On May 6, hot rolled coil prices closed higher across major markets. In Beijing, 25mm three-tier rebar closed at 3,610 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton. Shanghai saw a flat close at 3,522 yuan/ton, while Guangzhou remained unchanged at 3,750 yuan/ton.
**VII. Screws Futures Analysis**
The main contract for thread steel, HC1310, opened at 3,630 yuan/ton, fluctuated, and closed at 3,622 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton. Volume decreased slightly, but open interest increased. Analysts expect support around 3,590 yuan/ton and resistance at 3,660 yuan/ton.
**VIII. Hot-Rolled Futures Overview**
RB1307, the main contract for hot-rolled steel, opened at 3,680 yuan/ton, touched 3,700, and closed at 3,655, up 18 yuan/ton. Open interest increased, suggesting continued trader interest. Support is expected at 3,600 yuan/ton, with pressure near 3,690 yuan/ton.
**IX. Spot Price Forecast for May 7**
In the Beijing market, 25mm three-tier rebar is expected to remain stable at 3,610 yuan/ton. Shanghai’s three rebar is forecast to rise by 20 yuan/ton to 3,540 yuan/ton, while Guangzhou remains steady at 3,750 yuan/ton.
Hot-rolled coils in Shanghai are expected to increase by 10 yuan/ton to 3,690 yuan/ton, while Tianjin’s prices will likely rise to 3,560 yuan/ton. Lecong’s hot coils are expected to stay stable at around 3,780 yuan/ton.