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Global potash fertilizer market in the first quarter
In the first quarter of 2013, the global potash fertilizer market remained relatively stable, but the domestic Chinese market continued to show signs of weakness. Despite a slight increase in supply, demand did not significantly improve, leading to a deepening of the downward trend that had begun in the previous year. This imbalance between supply and demand created pressure on prices and kept the market in a state of sluggishness.
The potash fertilizer contracts for 2013 were signed earlier than usual, with Canadian exporter Canpotex reaching an agreement with Sinochem Fertilizer Macao Offshore Business Services Co., Ltd. to supply one million tons of potash at a CIF price of $400 per ton for the first half of the year. Following this, BPC, ICL, and APC also announced large-scale contracts, totaling nearly 3 million tons. These agreements helped support the spring planting season and provided some stability to the market.
However, the weather during the spring season was less favorable, with colder temperatures in northern regions and persistent droughts in the southwest causing delays in agricultural activities by about 20 days. This delay gave the market more time to adjust and replenish supplies. The new contract prices remained largely in line with previous port sales prices, but there was still a lack of confidence among downstream buyers, especially as the Chinese New Year approached. As a result, many buyers adopted a wait-and-see attitude.
After the Spring Festival in February, as shipments began to increase, potash prices experienced several fluctuations before settling into a more stable, albeit slightly weaker, range. For example, border trade Russian Red Potash was quoted at 2,600 yuan in early January, while 62% white potassium in Northeast China was priced at 2,700 yuan. By the end of March, these prices had dropped to 2,400 yuan and 2,450 yuan respectively, reflecting the overall softening of the market.
The imbalance between supply and demand remained a key factor suppressing price recovery. In 2012, China's total supply of potash fertilizer reached 16.62 million tons of potassium chloride, while demand stood at 12.52 million tons, leaving a surplus of around 4 million tons. Ports, traders, and large compound fertilizer plants still held excess inventory. Although sea arrivals were limited in the first two months of 2013, border trade continued to see strong inflows. Customs data showed that in January and February, approximately 231,771 tons and 235,915 tons of potash were transported via rail from Russia, respectively.
By March, the arrival volume increased rapidly, reaching 900,000 tons—its highest level since 2008. Meanwhile, downstream demand remained weak, with small and medium-sized compound fertilizer plants showing only modest interest in purchasing. Large-scale plants, such as those in Shandong, were focused on maintaining stock levels, while smaller players opted for infrequent, small-volume purchases. This mismatch between supply and demand continued to weigh on potash prices.
Internationally, the market remained stable, with major importers like India and Brazil playing a significant role. After China finalized its large contracts, India released its 2013 potash fertilizer list with a CIF price of $427 per ton, higher than China’s $400. It was estimated that China would import between 2.7 million and 3.1 million tons of potassium chloride in the first half of the year, while India would import between 1.5 million and 2 million tons. Brazil, another major importer, saw a 21.4% increase in potash imports in January and February 2013 compared to the same period in 2012, despite a decline in domestic demand.
International suppliers were also ramping up production in the first quarter to compensate for reduced output in the fourth quarter of 2012. North American potassium chloride production reached 1.286 million tons in March, a 20% increase from the previous month and 37% from the same period in 2012. Export volumes surged as well, with March exports rising 59% from the previous month and 183% from the same period last year.
Despite the challenges in the domestic market, international suppliers remained optimistic about the long-term outlook for potash. They expected prices to rise steadily in the coming months, especially as planting seasons in parts of Europe, the U.S., and northern China lagged due to cold weather. While the current market conditions may seem premature for a price increase, suppliers are looking to reverse the ongoing downward trend.
At the FMB meeting in Beijing at the end of April, international suppliers indicated they planned to raise potash contract prices in the second half of the year. This move, though seemingly early given the current market conditions, signals a shift in strategy to stabilize the market. With warmer weather and renewed crop demand on the horizon, the potash market is now under close scrutiny to see whether it will finally begin to recover.