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Winter is often a tough time for the construction steel market. Demand is starting to weaken as the colder weather sets in, making it less favorable for large-scale construction projects. Meanwhile, upstream ore prices remain stubbornly high, fluctuating without much consistency. This has led to a clear pattern of "strong supply and weak demand," with prices showing signs of a downward trend.
Investors familiar with the stock market might recognize the phrase "long-term decline." Recently, the construction steel market seems to be echoing that sentiment. By the 16th, reports indicated a weekly drop of 50 yuan per ton, bringing the price down to 3,820 yuan per ton. In Shanghai, the benchmark price for quality rebar has fallen further, with secondary rebars now quoted at around 3,730 yuan per ton, while quality rebars are priced at approximately 3,800 yuan per ton—both down by 50 yuan compared to the previous week. Market players suggest that the market's观望 (wait-and-see) stance has persisted for nearly two weeks, culminating in this recent downturn. In regions like Shanghai, the influx of steel from surrounding factories and the arrival of cheaper northern resources has intensified competition, driving prices down further. Additionally, as we enter the winter season, the actual demand from downstream industries is waning. Combined with high steel prices earlier in the year, the hesitancy in end-of-year purchases has added downward pressure on steel prices.
Despite this, steel mills remain keen on increasing production. However, there are noticeable differences in pricing strategies across manufacturers. Baosteel, a leader in the domestic sheet steel sector, has already announced its December ex-factory prices, with mainstream products such as cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel seeing an increase of 80 to 120 yuan per ton. This marks the second consecutive price hike for Baosteel. In contrast, the latest pricing from construction steel manufacturers leans toward stability or slight reductions. Currently, the discrepancy between factory prices and market prices persists, signaling significant downward pressure on mill pricing. According to national statistics, domestic crude steel output rose by 2.1% year-on-year in the first ten months of this year. While the daily average output of crude steel in October dropped by 1.3% compared to September, it still remains at a high level. Industry observers note that given the severe overcapacity in the crude steel sector, any improvement in profitability tends to spark immediate increases in production at steel mills.
The iron ore market continues to face its own set of challenges. It remains volatile, prone to sharp rises and falls. After a recent recovery, ore prices remain robust. In the domestic market, the price of iron concentrate in Hebei stayed steady, with steel mill inventories hovering around ten days' worth of supply. This has slowed trading activity in the iron concentrate powder market. Imported ore prices are slightly higher, with 63.5% grade Indian fines quoted at $123 per ton, up by $1 from the previous week. Data shows that China’s iron ore imports fell to their lowest point in the year in October, down over 13% from the previous month. Yet, despite this drop, ore prices increased by almost $15 per ton throughout October. Buyers in the mining market are cautious, waiting to see how currency fluctuations will impact future price directions.
Experts from relevant institutions believe that since November, the construction steel market has struggled with weak demand while facing growing supply pressures. The current downward trajectory in prices suggests that the balance of supply and demand seen earlier has shifted to a new pattern characterized by "strong supply and weak demand." Looking ahead, analysts predict that further declines in steel prices could very well define the market's trajectory moving forward.