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As we move deeper into winter, the demand for construction steel continues to weaken. Meanwhile, upstream ore prices remain robust, fluctuating between highs and lows. The "strong supply and weak demand" dynamic for construction steel has solidified in urban areas, suggesting that further price declines could be inevitable.
In the stock market, there's a saying: "Long-term trends point to falls." Recently, the construction steel market has mirrored this sentiment, with prices trending downward. By the 16th, reports indicated a weekly drop of 50 yuan per ton, bringing the current price to approximately 3,820 yuan per ton. In Shanghai, the benchmark price for secondary-quality rebar dropped to around 3,730 yuan per ton, while top-tier rebar fell to about 3,800 yuan per ton—both down by 50 yuan from the prior week. Market participants note that the stagnant观望 (wait-and-see) stance of the construction steel market has persisted for nearly two weeks, culminating in the recent downturn. In southern markets like Shanghai, the influx of steel from peripheral producers and cheaper supplies from northern regions has widened the cost gap among different market players. Additionally, with seasonal demand waning in downstream industries, hesitancy in year-end purchases has intensified, adding downward pressure on steel prices.
Steel mills remain eager to boost production, but their pricing strategies vary. Baosteel, a leader in the domestic sheet metal market, has already announced its December ex-factory prices, raising the cost of cold-rolled and hot-rolled products by 80 to 120 yuan per ton—a second such price hike this month. The sheet metal market appears to be improving, but construction steel manufacturers are leaning toward stable or slightly reduced pricing. The persistent inversion between factory and market prices suggests significant downward pressure on mill pricing. According to the latest statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, domestic crude steel output increased by 2.1% year-over-year in the first ten months of the year, though daily output in October dipped 1.3% compared to September. Industry experts suggest that, given the overcapacity in crude steel, any improvement in mill profitability quickly translates into heightened production incentives.
The iron ore market remains volatile, prone to sharp fluctuations. After a recent uptick, ore prices remain resilient. Domestic iron ore prices in Hebei province stayed steady, with mill inventories hovering around ten days' worth of supply, limiting active trading in the iron concentrate market. Imported ore prices edged higher, with 63.5% grade Indian fines quoted at $123 per ton, up $1 from the previous week. Despite a 13% dip in October imports—the lowest monthly figure this year—ore prices rose by nearly $15 per ton during the same month. Buyers in the mining sector are cautious, awaiting clearer price signals before committing.
Analysts from various institutions believe that since November, the construction steel market has faced increasing supply pressures despite sluggish demand. This shift indicates that the earlier balance of supply and demand has tipped, giving way to the "strong supply, weak demand" scenario currently unfolding. Looking ahead, analysts predict that continued price declines may define the future trajectory of the construction steel market.