Refined oil prices are expected to increase gradually

Although the international oil prices fell sharply, the central bank announced on the 8th to raise interest rates again, but the domestic refined oil price adjustment is still expected to be very strong. Analysts believe that in the New York, London, Singapore, crude oil prices have reached 10% of the rate of change in the case of refined oil prices are expected to start after the end of the Spring Festival.

The situation in Egypt has become the trigger for the recent surge in international oil prices. On January 31, the Brent crude contract for March broke through the $100 mark for the first time since October 2008. On February 3, Brent crude oil in London hit a 28-month high of $103.37 per barrel. Domestic product oil price pressure is increasing.

In fact, as early as before the Spring Festival, the domestic product oil price adjustment "window" has been opened. According to the information of Xiwang Energy, on Jan. 31, the price change rate of crude oil in the three places referenced by domestic refined oil price adjustment reached 7.77%, which was significantly higher than the 4% price adjustment condition stipulated in the pricing mechanism. Analysts attributed the lack of timely price adjustment to the Spring Festival transport factor. Siwang Energy analysts believe that after the end of the Spring Festival, that is, around the 20th, the National Development and Reform Commission will once again increase the price of refined oil, is expected to price adjustment range of 400-500 yuan per ton.

However, some market participants are not optimistic about the continued rise in international oil prices. Despite the fact that the situation in Egypt is of concern, so far the Suez Canal has been operating normally and the oil output in the Middle East has not been affected. The panic in the market has weakened and New York’s light crude oil prices have fallen for several consecutive days. In addition, the news that China is raising interest rates again, as well as news that OPEC plans to increase production and US crude oil inventories increase, makes the market worried that the outlook for crude oil supply and demand is not optimistic. Zhong Jian, chief economist of China Eastern Oil and Gas Network, believes that if the international oil price continues to decline, the domestic refined oil prices will not rule out the possibility of continuing to press troops.