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The increase in non-food prices in May also hit a record high, and the contribution to CPI increased. From the perspective of sub-items, clothing, household equipment supplies and services, transportation and communication are the driving forces for non-food prices. Historical experience shows that international oil prices - domestic PPI - non-food prices have a conduction effect, the time is about 4 to 6 months. Given the high international oil prices in the first half of the year and the high level of PPI operations, it is unlikely that non-food prices will fall sharply in the coming months. Therefore, 5.5% of the CPI is clearly not the high point of this round of inflation, most brokers have predicted the CPI in June has reached 6%. The role of investment escort economic growth policy regulation is gradually emerging. Under the adverse factors of property purchase restrictions and power cuts, the industrial added value in May increased by 13.3% year-on-year and 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month. The PMI announced at the beginning of the month also continued to decline. Only 52.0%. In terms of subdivision, due to the weakness of real estate and automobile consumption, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in May fell by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to maintain a downward trend. The consumption growth of downstream real estate, such as construction and decoration materials, furniture, household appliances and speaker materials, also showed a significant downward trend, and the growth rate of automobile production and sales was negative. Judging from the statement of the spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, the fall in relevant data is a normal result of active policy regulation. Therefore, it is hoped that the "recovery" of relevant policies will only lead to dreams. Fixed asset investment has been at a high level of operation. The growth rate of fixed asset investment and real estate investment from January to May was 25.8% and 34.6%, an increase of 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points. The shortage of funds for real estate developers is not as serious as it was during the 2008 financial crisis, and the investment utilization rate of real estate in 2009 was only 66%. The developers also saved a certain strength. In addition, the start of the construction of affordable housing in the second half of the year may lead to continued high investment in fixed asset investment. The central bank cautiously used price-based tools Five hours after the macro data was released on Tuesday, the central bank unexpectedly raised the deposit reserve ratio instead of raising interest rates. The foreign exchange holdings data released by the central bank on Thursday gave the market ample explanation. The data showed that the foreign exchange holdings of Chinese financial institutions reached 376.414 billion yuan in May, up 21% from the previous month. The upward adjustment of the deposit-recovery base currency was about 380 billion yuan, which just hedged the new foreign exchange. In June, the trend of hot money inflows is difficult to change, and the amount of funds due in the open market is about 601 billion yuan. It is expected that there will still be an increase in deposits. For more stringent price tools, the central bank may be cautious. On the one hand, the growth rate of M2 and M1 in May was 15.1% and 12.7% respectively, both of which were down by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The growth rate of M2 has dropped below the target of 16% in the year, which reduces the need for continuous policy overweight. On the other hand, the weighted average interest rate of corporate loans for financial institutions in April has climbed to 7.46%, surpassing the high point of 7.25% at the end of the previous round of interest rate hikes in 2007, and the private lending rate is even higher. The main purpose of the central bank to raise interest rates is to deal with negative interest rates, so if inflation is effectively controlled after reaching a high point in June, the need to raise interest rates will be small. Taking into account the fragile local government integration platform, most brokers also believe that "at least once in the year to raise interest rates again."
Inflation high point in June to the policy plus code probability is small
In May, CPI hit a new high in 34 months! On Tuesday, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the CPI growth in May was 5.5% year-on-year, which was in full compliance with previous market expectations. Therefore, the market closed with a positive line to celebrate the day. But what is more terrible than inflation is that most brokers expect CPI to reach a new high of 6% in June. CPI will hit a new high in June From the breakdown of the data, food prices are still the main driving force for CPI growth. Food prices rose by 11.7% in May, accounting for 63.6% of CPI's year-on-year increase. The most interesting thing is the price of pork. In May, the price of live pigs rose by 40.4%, and the contribution to CPI was nearly 20%! It seems that the inflation led by “Pig Strong†in 2007 seems to be recurring yesterday. However, considering that summer is the off-season of pork consumption, and the base of the same period last year is high, the high point of pork price increase may be in June and July.