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Nickel Weekly Review
**Summary:**
This week, nickel prices experienced a rebound followed by a slight pullback. The inventory levels surged above 204,000 tons, hitting a record high. Jinchuan’s ex-factory nickel price was reduced from RMB 100,000/ton to RMB 98,000/ton, and the spot market saw a drop of around RMB 1,300/ton. Despite the downward pressure, macroeconomic news is expected to provide some support for nickel prices next week, with forecasts suggesting a trading range of $13,600–14,500/ton.
**I. Analysis and Prediction of Nickel Price Trends**
1. **Review of Nickel Price Movements**
Throughout most of the week, nickel prices remained within a tight range of $13,500–$14,000/ton, with Thursday’s closing nearly matching that of the previous Friday. On Monday and Tuesday, the nickel price continued its decline from the previous week, reaching as low as $13,460/ton. However, on Wednesday and Thursday, prices rebounded sharply, climbing to $14,060/ton. By Friday afternoon, it settled back near $14,000/ton.
This week’s inventory increase to over 204,000 tons raised concerns about supply pressures. In terms of market sentiment, China’s official manufacturing PMI improved, while HSBC data came in better than expected. On the U.S. side, economic data showed improvement, and the Fed maintained a positive outlook during its recent meeting. These developments were generally bullish for metals, with copper and other base metals also showing strength. Nickel prices benefited from this environment, especially during late Wednesday and Thursday trading.
2. **Outlook for Nickel Prices**
July’s official Chinese manufacturing data was positive, indicating continued expansion in large-scale industrial activity. This suggests that concerns about China’s slowing growth may have been overstated. For the metal market, this bodes well, as China remains a key driver of demand. Looking ahead, attention will shift to the U.S. non-farm payrolls data for July. Early indicators like ADP employment and initial jobless claims suggest that the number of new jobs could exceed expectations, which would be a positive signal for the broader economy and, by extension, the metal markets.
Additionally, with the Fed recently downgrading its economic assessment, speculation about potential changes to quantitative easing has not caused significant panic. As a result, we can expect nickel prices to remain supported next week, likely trading within a range of $13,600–$14,500/ton.
**II. Domestic Nickel Market**
1. **Electrolytic Nickel Market**
Jinchuan adjusted its ex-factory nickel prices five times in a row this week. Only on Thursday did the price rise, while the rest of the time it declined. By Friday, the ex-factory price had dropped to RMB 98,000/ton, a reduction of RMB 2,000/ton compared to the previous week. In the Shanghai market, Jinchuan nickel was quoted at 98,300–98,500 yuan/ton, while Russian nickel stood at 97,200–97,400 yuan/ton—down roughly RMB 1,300/ton from the previous week.
During the first half of the week, prices fell steadily, leading to a loss of confidence among nickel plate traders. However, a sharp rebound on Wednesday and early Thursday lifted market sentiment. On Thursday morning, the Shanghai spot nickel market saw increased activity, with both buyers and sellers entering the market more positively. Transaction volumes rose significantly. However, in the rest of the week, the market remained stagnant, with limited deals being made.
2. **Ferronickel Market**
The overall price of ferronickel remained stable, but the supply of high-grade nickel ore remained tight. Steel mills found it difficult to secure supplies, prompting Lianzhong Steel to raise its latest inquiry price for high-nickel iron to 960 yuan/nickel (including tax), up 10 yuan/nickel from the previous round.
The main price range for 6–8% nickel-based pig iron was 920–930 yuan/nickel, averaging 925 yuan/nickel. For 4–6% nickel pig iron, the range was 920–940 yuan/nickel, averaging 930 yuan/nickel. Low-nickel pig iron (1.5–2.0%) was priced at 2,450–2,500 yuan/ton. High-nickel pig iron (10–15%) was still below market expectations despite a slight increase from the previous period. Sellers remained reluctant to sell, but signs of stabilization and recovery have emerged. Some manufacturers are planning to resume production, and with the launch of larger RKEF technologies, high-nickel iron supply is expected to increase, potentially easing the current tightness in the market.
3. **Domestic Nickel Ore Market**
Nickel ore prices remained relatively stable throughout the week. With rising ferronickel prices, port inquiries increased, but actual transactions remained weak. Some producers believe that raising high-grade nickel ore prices by 20 yuan/nickel is not ideal. As of Friday, the price of 0.9–1.1% nickel ore stood at 260–280 yuan/wet tons, while 1.4–1.6% grade nickel ore was priced at 160–240 yuan/wet tons. The 1.8–1.9% grade nickel ore was valued at 340–390 yuan/nickel. Most miners expressed disappointment with the current market conditions and plan to wait and see for a while. It is expected that nickel ore prices will remain stable next week.
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