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Machine tool output
Since September 2008, the decline in the growth rate of machine tool sales has been increasing month by month, and orders for new machine tools have decreased significantly. It has been reported that by the end of 2008, the order contract for ordinary machine tools and economical CNC machine tools fell by 45%, and the order contract for medium and high-end CNC machine tools dropped by about 15%. At the beginning of 2009, the number of orders placed by machine tool companies decreased, and it is said that the contract can generally last for about 6 months.
From the perspective of the user industry, although there are some demand highlights for the purchase of machine tools, the demand for machine tools in the two major user industries of machinery and automobiles in the first half of the year is still lacking in vitality, especially in export-oriented enterprises in coastal areas such as Guangdong and Jiangsu. There is not much willingness to purchase machine tools, and it is difficult for machine tool demand to improve greatly. In the second half of the year, with the country's policy of stimulating economic growth, the effect of the machine will gradually rebound, but the demand for machine tools will rebound, but the machine tool needs a certain period from order to delivery. Therefore, in general, in 2009, except for the increase in the output value of heavy-duty machine tools, the growth rate of sales value of all machine tools will continue to fall, and it is likely to fall back to 10% ~ 15% or even single-digit growth, but the annual machine tool sales The probability of negative growth in output is also small.
2. Machine tool imports
The import value of machine tools in 2009 is difficult to maintain the upward trend in 2008, due to the following factors, the impact will be reduced compared with last year: (1) the domestic economic growth rate declines, for imported vertical cars, vertical lathes, double-column vertical cars The demand for machine tools has declined, and the government has not introduced a policy of subsidizing imported high-end machine tools as it did last year; (2) canceling the super-national treatment of foreign-invested enterprises in importing machine tool taxes; (3) import substitution capacity of domestic machine tools Enhanced, and internationally renowned manufacturers set up factories in China to produce more and more machine tools; (4) mechanical and electrical products processing trade orders decreased, and the number of machine tools imported for processing trade is also reduced accordingly. On the other hand, it should also be noted that there is indeed a gap in the performance quality between the national products and the imported products in the field of high-end machine tools, and some varieties are still not available in China, and in this year the world machine tool market is sluggish, overseas machine tools Manufacturers will also strengthen competition in the Chinese market. Based on various factors, it is estimated that the value of machine tool imports in 2009 will fall within the range of 20%, and the amount will remain at a high level of more than 6 billion US dollars.
3. Machine tool export
Under the background of a marked slowdown in global economic growth and the recession of the three major economies of the United States, Japan and Europe, the rapid growth of China's machine tool exports will be reversed. The reduction of export contracts since September 2008 is a sign. However, with the support of the government to increase the export tax rebate rate, through the market diversification strategy and the improvement of the export product structure, although China's machine tool exports may have negative growth in 2009, the decline is not too great.
4. Machine tool consumption
Since the value of the machine tool output value and import and export volume in 2009 cannot be accurately predicted, it is naturally difficult to predict the specific value of the consumption amount. However, it can be judged that the increase in machine tool consumption in 2009 will continue to fall and will be less than the increase in machine tool output.
The development of the machine tool market is a wave-type development, that is to say, it has periodicity. In 2009, the Chinese machine tool market is in the downward phase of the cycle, and the further decline in the growth rate of major economic indicators is inevitable. The facts show that the most affected by the financial crisis are those low-end machine tool manufacturers with weak development capabilities. Today's market not only requires machine tool manufacturers to speed up the adjustment of product structure, but also needs to accelerate the transformation of development methods, focusing on improving product performance, quality and strengthening services, and cultivating their own independent development capabilities, especially innovation capabilities. In this way, we can turn "crisis" into "machine" and gain new development opportunities.
Development trend of four major indicators of China's machine tool market in 2009
Forecasting the four major indicators of China's machine tool market in 2009, due to the existence of more uncertain factors, it is difficult to make accurate numerical predictions, and only make a simple judgment on its trend.