Lunch Bags,Insulated Lunch Tote Bags,Reusable Portable Lunch Bag,Neoprene Lunch Bags Dongguan C.Y. RedApple Industrial Limited , https://www.redapplebags.com
In addition, when talking about how to ensure that there is no systemic risk and avoid crisis, Wu Jinglian said that there are two aspects: on the one hand, it is necessary to control and resolve existing risks, and win time for promoting reform. On the other hand, it is supplemented by short-term adjustments to appropriate fiscal and monetary policies.
In terms of monetary policy, Wu Jinglian believes that the policy has little effect. Because cash is king, even if the money is relaxed, the funds will probably not go to the real economy. There is still a little room for fiscal policy, and it is recommended to focus on inclusive tax cuts.
Wu Jinglian finally said that the most fundamental way of China's economy lies in reform. In the past two years, our reforms have made progress, but further progress is needed, such as the reform of decentralization and the reform of the examination and approval system.
The following is the full text of the speech:
China's economic problems are very complicated. How can we explain it clearly in 20 minutes? It is difficult. I will talk about these five issues in the order of "crisis, transformation, power, innovation, and reform."
Crisis: Two ways to avoid systemic crisis
After the global financial crisis, the Chinese government adopted a strong stimulus policy in 2009, which pushed the growth rate up, but soon there was a decline in growth rate. Of course, there were other problems, which led to a big discussion. ——Whether China will have an economic crisis or systemic risk, how to avoid systemic risks is the focus of discussions in the last two or three years.
There are basically two different strategies for how to avoid a crisis. The theoretical models or analytical frameworks on which the two strategies are based are different. According to a discussion in the Financial 40 Forum this year, it is classified into two types. One way of thinking is to analyze from the demand side, and another analysis is to analyze from the supply side.
From the demand side of the analysis of the idea, the popular saying is called "troika" - the total demand is composed of three troika, in fact, according to Keynesian economics is a four-wheeled carriage, we generally say here troika It is consumption, investment, import and export.
The phenomenon of the decline in growth rate is due to the lack of motivation of the troika. Both Professors and Mr. Qian Yingyi believe that the analytical framework of the troika has many shortcomings. It is actually derived from the short-term analytical framework of Keynesianism, according to Keynesianism. In terms of total demand, the growth rate of total supply is determined. There was a controversy at that time. Both Professor and Professor Qian Yingyi believed that there was a theoretical problem in the analysis of this method. Of course, the theory of Keynesianism is correct. Now domestic economists have great differences. But I assume that it is correct. It is also useless in theory to analyze China's long-term economic development, because this is a short-term analysis.
However, our opinion does not seem to be of much use. The analysis of the important advisory bodies of the government is based on the troika. The policy conclusions drawn from this analysis are obviously to increase investment. You can analyze them one by one. Can you increase consumption? No. Can I increase import and export? No. Finally, implement it to one point - increase investment.
However, this analysis method now has great limitations. Because of the ultra-high-speed investment growth and the increase of investment rate, there is not enough resources to support it. As a result, the leverage ratio of our national balance sheet is constantly increasing. The analysis, there are about three aspects of debt, government debt, corporate liabilities and resident liabilities, has reached between 250% and 300% of GDP, which is a very high proportion, and it is this will lead to whether it will happen The problem of systemic risk, because of such high leverage, the emergence of individual debt repayment difficulties is inevitable, and the possibility of systemic risks is greatly increased.
This is an analytical method that has been analyzed from the economic analysis of government, investment banks or securities companies. In actual work, it seems that the departments in charge of this aspect are busy with the approval of projects and money. In the past, the project was approved, but now there are problems. Our financial reforms still have progress, not only to approve projects. And find money. So this path still has a considerable impact.
Another way is to analyze from various factors on the supply side. Previously using production functions to express this analytical framework, production functions are nothing more than three main factors, labor, capital and efficiency. In April of this year, at the 40-person financial forum in Beijing, Prof. Aoki Masahiro and Professor Yu Yongding believed that another method should be used to analyze from the supply side, and various factors and powers of supply should be improved. On the existing problems, the analysis of the three of us is almost the same. Capital continues to raise investment rates. There is two problems. One problem is the diminishing return on investment. This is very obvious. From 2009 to the present, the intensity of the stimulus has not weakened, but the effect has dropped sharply. Now almost increasing investment has no effect on growth. On the one hand, the leverage ratio is constantly increasing, so it may be dangerous.
Transformation: Improving Total Factor Productivity
In the past 30 years of reform and opening up, the demographic dividend is decreasing, and the structural changes in rural resources shifting to the city have improved efficiency, but the process is nearing the end. The only thing that can solve the current problem is to improve efficiency and increase the Solow residual value in the middle of the production function.
What is Solow's residual value? According to Solow, technological progress is actually the improvement of total factor productivity—mainly relying on improving total factor productivity to achieve growth, that is, the way we have been trying to achieve economic transformation or transforming economic development in the past 20 years.
Here is a question. According to this analysis, the key to solving the problem is transformation, which is the second item of our topic. The question is how can we achieve the transformation of the economic development mode?
We proposed a transformation of the economic growth mode and later changed it into a transformation of the economic development mode. It has been a full 20 years from 1995 to the present. This is stipulated in the ninth five-year plan, but it has not been realized so far. Its core is to change the growth momentum or the source of growth.
Motivation: Improve efficiency and promote reform
What is the source factor? As I said just now, the past investment-driven power is now turning to relying on innovation to improve efficiency. But why did it not be realized in 20 years? In fact, when the eleventh five-year plan was formulated, a comprehensive analysis has been done. At that time, I used the phrase in the resolution of the Third Plenary Session of the 16th CPC Central Committee. "There are systemic obstacles." The Ninth Five-Year Plan has made progress, and the Fifteenth Plan has been retrogressive in terms of economic development.
Therefore, the 11th Five-Year Plan stipulates the transformation of the economic growth mode and the transformation of the economic growth mode as the main line of the 11th Five-Year Plan, so it is necessary to reform. According to the resolution of the Third Plenary Session of the 16th CPC Central Committee, it is "improving the socialist market economic system." Incidentally, in fact, the reform objectives proposed by the Third Plenary Session of the 14th CPC Central Committee are the same as those of the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee. The Third Plenary Session of the 16th CPC Central Committee said that the goal of reform is the socialist market economy. What is this? What kind of economic system? It is called a unified, open, competitive and orderly market system. The Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee proposed to establish a unified, open, competitive and orderly market system.
The goal set by the Third Plenary Session of the Fourteenth Central Committee was not fully realized in the Third Plenary Session of the Sixteenth Central Committee. Therefore, the Third Plenary Session of the 16th CPC Central Committee made a decision to improve the system and to achieve the unity of the Third Plenary Session of the Fourteenth Central Committee. An open, competitive and orderly market system. However, the economic situation at that time was very good. The reform was a self-revolution. So many people think that it must be changed. In 2003, the economic situation was very good, so the decision of the Third Plenary Session of the 16th CPC Central Committee was not very good. Execution.
To promote transformation and find new impetus, to use innovation as the driving force and to improve efficiency, the key issue is to promote reform. Therefore, under the premise of ensuring that there is no systemic risk, the main focus is on actually pushing forward the reform. This is the different conclusions drawn by two different analytical methods.
Currency, policy: Monetary policy has little effect, and there is room for fiscal policy.
We will separately say how to ensure that there is no systemic risk and avoid the crisis. There are probably two aspects. On the one hand, we must control and resolve the existing risks and win time for the reform. On the other hand, it is supplemented by short-term adjustments to appropriate fiscal and monetary policies.
I have said many times to control the risk, such as properly handling the debts of all levels of government; stopping the low-return and non-returning invalid investments; stopping the blood transfusion of zombie enterprises; using state-owned capital to repay the government's contingent liabilities; Debt-funded enterprises carry out bankruptcy and restructuring, release risks; stop rigid redemption; revitalize the stock of dead assets due to extensive growth. Some are doing it, some are doing very slowly, such as repaying social security funds, Shanghai has made a small, that is, selling home, Shandong is paying 30% of local state-owned assets for social security funds. The Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee made clear regulations, but two years later, from the central level, there is no action at present, and it is said that the plan is being drafted.
In addition, it is supplemented by fiscal policy and monetary policy. Of course, it should be noted here that according to the research of the chief economist of Nomura Research Institute, when the balance sheet has problems, the role of monetary policy is very small, because people must improve The liquidity of assets in the hands, because cash is king, so even if you loosen the money, the funds probably will not go to the real economy, because the liquidity in that place is very poor, it is difficult to extract it.
This is especially the case in China, where funds will eventually go to the capital market, leading to a stock market bubble. For example, the root cause of the recent stock market crash is here. Because domestic liquidity has been relatively loose, except for the decline in foreign exchange holdings this year, there are some problems in the main channels of currency issuance. In some quarters, liquidity is somewhat tight, but since 2009, currency liquidity has been relatively loose. However, the funds did not go to the real economy, because it is easy to take away from the stock market, so it will cause such problems.
There is still a little room for fiscal policy, but how to give it, there are still different ideas. Some government departments hope to increase spending to strengthen expansionary fiscal policies, such as iron, public and base investment, and some government officials believe that it is best for him to use it, such as subsidies for high-tech industries, etc. Actually, from the past experience, this effect is not very good. This is controversial. For example, in order to support third-generation wireless communication, it is said that it costs 200 billion to support TDSCDMA, but the effect is not necessarily good. Some expenses are going to increase. There is another way to increase the intensity of expansionary fiscal policy, which is to reduce income. So I have always been suggesting to focus on the inclusive tax cuts, and our taxes are still too high.
Reform: the key to success
The last fundamental one is to promote reform. The key to success or failure lies in whether the reform can be promoted in accordance with the decisions of the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee and the Fourth Plenary Session. In the past two years, our reforms have made progress, but they need to be further promoted, such as the reform of decentralization and the reform of the examination and approval system. We did it once in the early 21st century, but it is easy to go back and institutionalize it.
Institutionalization is mainly two. One is to formulate a negative list. This incident was originally raised in the Sino-US investment negotiations. The Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee promoted it to domestic reforms. The negative list is in the specific work. Because the administrative department is often reluctant to decentralize, the negative list of the free trade zone is still too long, and the negative list of the overall domestic market entry is being formulated and has not yet been worked out.
On the other hand, according to Premier Li’s statement, it is different from the enterprise for the government. On the contrary, it is not feasible for the law to be unauthorized, so the government is authorized to make a positive list. Moreover, the situation of government officials' inaction is very serious. Of course, there are various reasons. One of the reasons is that their powers are not clear, so the approval is risky.
Both financial reform and fiscal reform have made great progress, especially in the middle of financial reform. One is interest rate liberalization, and the other is exchange rate marketization. The reform is faster than originally expected. Some aspects of reform seem to be making progress too slowly. If the securities law is not revised, the reform of the registration system will probably not work. Like these aspects, how can I find a way to do it faster? The price reform, the deep reform team has already discussed and passed, of course, this is the price of goods and services, it seems that this year is expected to start in the fourth quarter.
I think it is very important, but the slowest one is the reform of state-owned enterprises. The documents of the 1+N reform of state-owned enterprises are published one by one. It seems that it will start. I seem to have several controversial issues that are not too clear and need further clear. The last one is the free trade zone. The issue of the free trade zone has different views. Now there are already four free trade zones. Many local officials regard the establishment of a free trade zone as an institutional arrangement for obtaining preferential policies. This is in line with the Chinese government. The announced purpose of establishing a free trade zone is that there is a gap.
In his deep discussion on the Free Trade Zone speech, General Secretary Xi Jinping said that the purpose of establishing a free trade zone is to adapt to the general trend of trade and investment facilitation, and to create a market-oriented, internationalized and rule-based business environment. Fast, it seems that the pace has slowed down a bit recently. I think it should be speeded up. This is not a local issue in Shanghai. As a chief economist, as a general economist, especially in Shanghai, this place should be promoted. According to General Secretary Xi’s statement, the recent TPP agreement is not only a challenge for us, but also an opportunity. Through the construction of the free trade zone, we can open up a new situation in world trade and In the change of investment rules, it is possible to achieve reforms with openness, and the economic system and the rule of law required by the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee and the Fourth Plenary Session will make greater progress.
Thank you.
Wu Jinglian: Where is the most fundamental way out for the Chinese economy?
Abstract According to Phoenix Finance, economist Wu Jinglian said at Fudan University held "the first chief economist at Fudan Forum" October 10, China's population is constantly dividend reduction, structural changes in rural transfer of resources to the city is close .. .
According to Phoenix Finance, economist Wu Jinglian said at the “First Fudan Chief Economist Forum†held at Fudan University on October 10 that China’s demographic dividend is decreasing and the structural changes in rural resources to urban transfer are nearing completion. The only thing left to solve the current problem is to improve efficiency.