Will the glass market usher in a busy season?

In the first half of this year, China added 12 float glass production lines and 4 cold repair lines, contributing a total of 61.3 million heavy containers to the market. At the end of last year, industry forecasts had predicted that the glass sector would add 16 new production lines this year, increasing annual capacity by 60.6 million heavy containers. This suggests that the growth in production has slightly exceeded initial expectations. A significant portion of the newly added capacity came in June, accounting for about one-third of the total. Projects such as Xianning CSG Second Line, Qian’an Yaohua Line, Beijing Jingjing Technology Line, and Taibo Fengyang First Line contributed an additional 18 million heavy containers annually. According to Chen Xiaofei, an analyst at China Glass Information Network, the surge in June was driven by companies' optimism for the second half of the year, with many expecting these lines to come online before the peak season begins. Typically, the glass market starts to pick up around late June, signaling the beginning of the busy period. Zhang Jun, a researcher at China Securities, highlighted that the main downstream sectors for glass are real estate, automotive, and exports, with real estate being the largest consumer. Recent trends show that both housing and automotive demand have increased, while export performance has remained relatively weak. Despite this, the real estate sector is showing signs of recovery. According to data from January to May, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide rose by 35.6% year-on-year, and the cumulative construction area increased by 16%. Zhang Jun noted that the newly started housing area will continue to grow in the second half of the year, leading to a steady increase in construction activity. As construction expands, so does the demand for glass, which is expected to reach its peak during the "Golden September" and "Silver October" periods. The automotive sector is the second-largest driver of glass demand. In the first half of the year, the auto market saw rapid growth, with both production and sales exceeding 9 million units from January to May. Year-over-year growth rates for production and sales reached 13.49% and 12.56%, respectively—10.3 and 10.9 percentage points higher than the previous year. Analysts expect the annual sales growth rate to surpass 10%. Despite sluggish export performance, Zhang Jun believes that the recovery of the real estate and automotive sectors will support the long-term rebound in glass demand. With improved demand in the second half of the year, glass prices are likely to rise further, signaling a positive outlook for the industry.

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