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Will the glass market usher in a busy season?
In the first half of this year, China added 12 float glass production lines and 4 cold repair lines, contributing a total of 61.3 million heavy containers to the market. At the end of last year, industry forecasts predicted that 16 new glass production lines would be added in 2024, increasing annual production capacity by 60.6 million heavy containers. This surge in capacity has raised questions about whether the glass market is entering a more active season.
A significant portion of the newly added capacity came in June, accounting for one-third of the total. Projects such as Xianning CSG Second Line, Qian’an Yaohua Line, Beijing Jingjing Technology Line, and Taibo Fengyang First Line contributed an additional 18 million heavy containers annually. According to Chen Xiaofei, an analyst at China Glass Information Network, the timing of these projects reflects companies’ optimism about the second half of the year. Many of these lines are expected to come online before the peak season begins, which typically starts around late June.
Zhang Jun, a researcher at China Securities, noted that the main downstream sectors for glass include real estate, automobiles, and exports. Among these, the real estate sector remains the largest consumer. Recent trends show a rise in both housing and automotive demand, though export performance has been slower than expected.
From January to May, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide increased by 35.6% year-on-year, while the cumulative construction area rose by 16%. Zhang believes that the newly started construction area will continue to grow in the second half of the year, leading to higher demand for glass. As the real estate market warms up, the arrival of "Golden September and Silver October" is expected to bring a surge in glass demand.
The automotive sector is the second-largest driver of glass demand. In the first half of 2024, the auto market saw strong growth in both production and sales. From January to May, cumulative production and sales exceeded 9 million units, with year-over-year growth rates reaching 13.49% and 12.56%, respectively—10.3 and 10.9 percentage points higher than the previous year. Analysts expect annual sales growth to exceed 10%.
Although glass exports remain sluggish, Zhang believes that the recovery of real estate and automotive sectors will support long-term demand growth. With rising construction activity and stronger auto production, the demand for glass is expected to improve further in the second half of the year, potentially driving prices upward.