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Whether the warming up in the second half of the property market can continue
In the first half of 2012, with the strategic adjustment of the developers and the policy stimulus, more demand for purchasing power will gradually surface, which will lead to a new round of transaction climax in the property market. However, as the property market enters the second half, the expectation that the policy will not relax has become a consensus. The group that just needs to buy the house has also been digested. Most of the second half of 2012 has too much uncertainty: whether the developer's offer can bottom out, already Where should the real estate industry, which has worked hard for more than a year in a regulated and tight environment, where to go? There are too many puzzles in the future of the property market to be solved. The steady increase in volume will continue this year, the market volume has been steadily rising, and developers have achieved good results with price changes. At present, the mentality of developers’ rapid shipment has not changed, and the confidence of buyers It is also gradually recovering, which means that the market in May and June will continue the previous situation. While the volume of transactions has steadily increased, the price has remained stable. It is undeniable that the individual projects that sold well in the previous April have a slight price increase, which may restrain the release of the demand to a certain extent. Under the circumstance that the overall policy remains unchanged, it is recommended that enterprises pay close attention to time to maintain the price. stable. As for the second half of the year, Jia Yupeng believes that many projects will enter the market. The increase in supply and the maturity of consumers have laid the foundation for market transactions. At the same time, prices will not fluctuate too much because of the increase in supply. Encourage just-needed and curb speculation. The current real estate industry is at the bottom, but in terms of policy, the direction of encouraging and suppressing speculation will not change. Judging from the situation in the past few months, the Beijing land market has shown a bottoming out trend, both in terms of transaction volume, supply volume and premium rate. In terms of real estate transactions, the volume of transactions has declined, while the price is bottoming out. On the basis of small fluctuations, buyers also have a tendency to wait and see, but this trend is not particularly obvious. As for the market situation in the second half of the year, Chen Zhi said that due to the influence of multiple factors, the prospects of the real estate market are still unclear. Whether it will continue to go down or the next rise will be uncertain, but the policy is just to encourage the market to enter the market. The direction of investment and speculation will not change. In the second half of the year, it has already played a big role in inspiring the property market policy. Since March of this year, the transaction volume of the property market has seen a significant recovery, mainly due to the appropriate liberalization of financial policies. For first-time home buyers, the interest rate on mortgage loans has decreased, and loans have been paid. The number of buyers has naturally increased. Judging from the current credit policy, there have been encouraging policies that are obviously inclined to the need of the group. In addition, the affordable housing is actively entering the market. It is expected that more will be required to enter the market in the second half of the year. Under these just-needed support, it is expected that the volume will not be available this year. Too bad. In addition, from the perspective of the overall economic environment, China's economy as a whole is improving, residents' incomes are rising, and the real estate industry will not be seriously down. Under the trend of smooth operation, a soft landing will be achieved. For real estate enterprises, it is now an enterprise innovation and transformation opportunity. In the past, the big cycle of real estate development has passed, and the era of pursuing fast is gone. Enterprises must turn from simply seeking for products. Weiye I love my family's vice president Hu Jinghui is expected to usher in a new round of Xiaoyangchun in the first few months of this year. The confidence of buyers is gradually recovering. Hu Jinghui expects that as prices continue to fall, the credit policy will continue to support the first home buyers. The demand for first-time home purchases is expected to continue to be released smoothly. In May and June, Beijing is expected to usher in a new round of “Xiaoyangchunâ€. On the supply side, most development companies are forced by the sales pressure in the first half of the year, and they will seize the opportunity to actively push the market. Some owners who are eager to sell their houses are gradually aware of the sensitivity and tolerance of first-time home buyers to house prices. Hu Jinghui believes that when the first-time home buyers are just exhausted, there will be certain variables in the property market in the second half of the year. This uncertainty is reflected in: First, as the economic growth rate declines, monetary policy will be adjusted at any time. There is uncertainty in policy tightening. Second, local governments are forced by the pressure of falling current investment, how to expand domestic demand to maintain economic growth, and there is uncertainty about the fine-tuning of local policies for the real estate industry. The price change will continue to judge the real estate situation this year. Regardless of the fine-tuning of the policy, it will be stable, and the whole market will continue to be at a low level in 2012. At present, most developers are automatically lowering house prices and realizing price changes. In March, the pulse type blowout was once. In April, it was a little down. May was relatively stable. The developers have adapted to this environment. Development, cash is king, I believe this situation will continue further. This year, there will be no big real estate policy, no upward momentum, no downward pressure. I think this market should be in such an environment. In this process, if you want to ignite, then you will take things for change. For example, just need products and reasonable price/performance ratio to stimulate the market and more room tickets. Every company's strategy to deal with the market is not the same, but one thing is certain, the company must also adjust its strategy. Yi Ju China Co-Chairman and President of the Board of Directors Zhou Wei, Greenland Real Estate Marketing Director Han Lei , the effect of price change is obvious. In the past few months, the desire for customers to purchase has increased, taking the southern region as an example, to Beijing last week. The weekly volume has returned to the normal level of 2000 sets. However, this does not mean that the market must have a qualitative change, mainly because the developer has achieved certain results with the price-changing method. After making a careful judgment, the customer is determined to purchase the project that has been concerned. The market situation in the second half of the year is still uncertain, Han Lei said that he is cautious, and developers will basically continue the current price strategy and quickly ship. In the next few months, housing prices will bottom out. After the Spring Festival this year, the volume of transactions in most cities such as Beijing has rebounded. For example, in April, the volume of new commercial housing in 20 typical cities in the country increased by 45% compared with April last year. Bottom rebound. House prices continue to fall, but the decline will soon be completed in the next few months. From the average transaction price, in the first four months of 2010, 2011 and 2012, the growth rate of commercial housing transactions in the country was 7.5%, 6.9% and 1.8%, respectively. The decline was obvious, and it is expected to fall slightly throughout the year. From the price index of 70 large and medium-sized cities, since the peak of the year-on-year growth in April 2010, it has continued to decline. It has fallen for the first time in March. From the ring point of view, it has already experienced a downward turning point in October last year. Falling. It is estimated that house prices will stop falling around the third quarter, and there may be a small increase in the fourth quarter. In terms of policy, there has been a “policy bottom†in the second half of last year, and no bigger policy will be introduced this year. The credit policy is loose and indirect. The deputy general manager of the property market Yahao, Gao Wei, believes that the price reduction promotion of some projects and the bank's loan interest rate discount of 15% for the first-time home buyers have made the residential market transaction gradually recover since March and April. Recently, some banks have intentionally tightened interest rate discounts. At this critical moment, on the evening of May 12, the central bank announced for the third time that it would cut the deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points, which is expected to release 400 billion yuan again. fluidity. Although the central bank has repeatedly reiterated that the liquidity of the release is aimed at the real industry, in the situation of the slowdown of the real economy, the purchase of housing loans is undoubtedly a relatively high-quality part, so it is inevitable that a large amount of capital will flow into this field, which is also in line with this regulation. For the easing of the first-time home buyers, the future loan offers for such customers will continue to expand. In the second half of the year, the property market is still moderately pessimistic. The effect of Beijing's real estate price and price decline began to appear. In fact, it was only in the fourth quarter of 2011, and the regulatory trend and effectiveness have not been consolidated. By 2012, under the circumstances that the overall policy tone remains unchanged and the buyer's market characteristics are basically stable, the regulatory effect will continue to deepen. However, in the first half of 2012, the real estate market changed from extremely cold to hot in the short term. The volume of transactions rose or remained high for several consecutive months, which led to some speculation that the property market is about to pick up. For this part of the guess, I think it is still too optimistic. From a policy perspective, if the market really shows signs of recovery in volume and price in the second half of 2012, the government is likely to continue to increase regulation and control, and the market will be suppressed again. Although the current market is recovering, there is still a big gap before the purchase. Therefore, looking at the real estate market in Beijing in the second half of the year, it is still a moderately pessimistic view. Beijing's real estate market is less likely to break through the current regulatory trend. This year, the real estate market is a stable year. Due to the unstable market expectations and concerns about the regulatory policies, the enthusiasm for land acquisition has been reduced. Therefore, the investment in real estate development enterprises across the country has already experienced negative growth. However, I think that even if the negative growth of land continues this year, there will be no major problems with the growth of land stocks for development companies. Under the influence of regulatory policies, we hope that this year's real estate market is a stable year, which is probably such a trend. There is no reason to go too far, we have no reason to be too optimistic about the real estate market, and there is no reason to be too pessimistic about the macro economy. The structural differences between enterprises and cities are particularly large. This is the characteristic of the real estate market this year, and the structural differences are particularly large. The worst days have passed in March, April and May, and the real estate transaction volume has improved significantly. I think that the worst time for real estate industry in this year has passed. The rebound in trading volume, the slight loosening of bank credit, and the large developers raising funds overseas have made the entire industry cash flow, which was extremely tight after the fourth quarter of last year. Slightly loose. China's real estate has never lacked demand, nor lack of rigid demand. China's real estate lacks effective demand and is the one who can afford a house at this price. In today's monetary environment, if a limit purchase order is opened, a large number of investors can still afford a house, which is not a rigid demand. In the future, China's real estate will be a process of warm boiled frogs. The next step in the property market changes depends on the developer's recent property market increase is mainly due to the market recovery, but the current price cuts of developers are still tentative, and the trading volume will fluctuate repeatedly in the game of all parties. The house price in the second quarter may still be Continue to fall. Under the overall stalemate of the property market, the degree of differentiation of the market parties has deepened. The next step in the property market changes mainly depends on the developer. If the developer exchanges the price, the transaction volume of the property market is expected to rise, otherwise the transaction volume will continue to be suppressed.